To build or not to build, that is the uncertainty : fuzzy synthetic evaluation of risks for sustainable housing in developing economies

Abstract

Sustainable housing development is essential for achieving the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals. However, amid increasing housing deficits, investing in sustainable housing is widely perceived as a risky venture among policymakers and potential developers. This study explores the risk factors that hinder sustainable housing in developing economies using Ghana as a case study. Through a comprehensive literature review, a list of 30 risk factors was established and categorized into five thematic groups. These factors and groups were used to conduct a questionnaire survey among professionals in the Ghanaian housing market to assess progress on achieving sustainable development goals in housing and the risk factors that affect these. Fuzzy synthetic evaluation (FSE) analysis conducted on risk factors revealed that ‘financing-related’ is the most critical risk category followed by ‘procurement-related’, ‘design and construction’, ‘operation and maintenance’ and ‘political-related’ risk factors. By prioritizing the risk categories, the findings apprise policymakers and practitioners of the risk factors that require more attention to achieve sustainable housing development. Additionally, the study stipulates measures for mitigating critical risks and for promoting efficient eminent domain on land, energy efficient retrofitting, transparent procurement, effective contractual strategies and efficient co-production and co-designing for sustainable housing development.