A comprehensive review on uncertainty modeling methods in modern power systems

Abstract

In recent years, modern power systems integrated with renewable energy sources and communication technologies have been rapidly developed. However, the randomness and intermittency of renewable energy sources, together with the unexpected disturbances in the vulnerable cyber layer, introduce uncertainties into power systems, which pose huge threats to the stable operation of modern power systems and should be carefully considered. Moreover, there is a lack of a comprehensive review of uncertainty modeling in modern power systems, which is one of the significant tasks in quantifying uncertainties. In this review, the methods and respective characteristics of uncertainty modeling in modern power systems are analyzed. According to the outputs of methods, they are categorized as model-driven and data-driven methods. The existing uncertainties in modern power systems and the respective modeling methods are investigated from the aspects of the physical layer, cyber layer, and economic and social layer. The applications of uncertainty modeling methods in modern power system operation are summarized from the aspects of steady state, dynamic, and risk analysis of modern power systems. Also, the prospective future research topics are recommended.