Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/10397/110074
DC Field | Value | Language |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor | Department of Applied Mathematics | en_US |
dc.creator | Avilov, KK | en_US |
dc.creator | Li, Q | en_US |
dc.creator | Lin, L | en_US |
dc.creator | Demirhan, H | en_US |
dc.creator | Stone, L | en_US |
dc.creator | He, D | en_US |
dc.date.accessioned | 2024-11-21T04:18:53Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2024-11-21T04:18:53Z | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 1742-5689 | en_US |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10397/110074 | - |
dc.language.iso | en | en_US |
dc.publisher | Royal Society Publishing | en_US |
dc.rights | © 2024 The Author(s). | en_US |
dc.rights | Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved. | en_US |
dc.rights | This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Avilov Konstantin K., Li Qiong, Lin Lixin, Demirhan Haydar, Stone Lewi and He Daihai 2024. The 1978 English boarding school influenza outbreak: where the classic SEIR model fails. J. R. Soc. Interface.21: 20240394, which has been published in final form at http://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2024.0394. | en_US |
dc.subject | Bayesian epidemic model | en_US |
dc.subject | Children’s pandemic | en_US |
dc.subject | Delay differential equations | en_US |
dc.subject | Influenza progression model | en_US |
dc.subject | Modelling | en_US |
dc.subject | Residence time | en_US |
dc.title | The 1978 English boarding school influenza outbreak: where the classic SEIR model fails | en_US |
dc.type | Journal/Magazine Article | en_US |
dc.identifier.volume | 21 | en_US |
dc.identifier.issue | 220 | en_US |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1098/rsif.2024.0394 | en_US |
dcterms.abstract | Previous work has failed to fit classic SEIR epidemic models satisfactorily to the prevalence data of the famous English boarding school 1978 influenza A/H1N1 outbreak during the children’s pandemic. It is still an open question whether a biologically plausible model can fit the prevalence time series and the attack rate correctly. To construct the final model, we first used an intentionally very flexible and overfitted discrete-time epidemiologic model to learn the epidemiological features from the data. The final model was a susceptible (S) – exposed (E) – infectious (I) – confined-to-bed (B) – convalescent (C) – recovered (R) model with time delay (constant residence time) in E and I compartments and multi-stage (Erlang-distributed residence time) in B and C compartments. We simultaneously fitted the reported B and C prevalence curves as well as the attack rate (proportion of children infected during the outbreak). The non-exponential residence times were crucial for good fits. The estimates of the generation time and the basic reproductive number (ℛ0) were biologically reasonable. A simplified discrete-time model was built and fitted using the Bayesian procedure. Our work not only provided an answer to the open question, but also demonstrated an approach to constructive model generation. | en_US |
dcterms.accessRights | open access | en_US |
dcterms.bibliographicCitation | Journal of the Royal Society interface, Nov. 2024, v. 21, no. 220, 20240394 | en_US |
dcterms.isPartOf | Journal of the Royal Society interface | en_US |
dcterms.issued | 2024-11 | - |
dc.identifier.eissn | 1742-5662 | en_US |
dc.identifier.artn | 20240394 | en_US |
dc.description.validate | 202411 bcch | en_US |
dc.description.oa | Accepted Manuscript | en_US |
dc.identifier.FolderNumber | a3233 | - |
dc.identifier.SubFormID | 49814 | - |
dc.description.fundingSource | RGC | en_US |
dc.description.fundingSource | Others | en_US |
dc.description.fundingText | Collaborative Research Fund; the National Science Foundation of China; Australian Research Council | en_US |
dc.description.pubStatus | Published | en_US |
dc.description.oaCategory | Green (AAM) | en_US |
dc.relation.rdata | https://zenodo.org/records/13753469 | en_US |
Appears in Collections: | Journal/Magazine Article |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Avilov_1978_English_Boarding.pdf | 3.08 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open | |
Avilov_1978_English_Boarding_Appendix.pdf | 7.4 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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