Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/110074
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dc.contributorDepartment of Applied Mathematicsen_US
dc.creatorAvilov, KKen_US
dc.creatorLi, Qen_US
dc.creatorLin, Len_US
dc.creatorDemirhan, Hen_US
dc.creatorStone, Len_US
dc.creatorHe, Den_US
dc.date.accessioned2024-11-21T04:18:53Z-
dc.date.available2024-11-21T04:18:53Z-
dc.identifier.issn1742-5689en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10397/110074-
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherRoyal Society Publishingen_US
dc.rights© 2024 The Author(s).en_US
dc.rightsPublished by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.en_US
dc.rightsThis is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Avilov Konstantin K., Li Qiong, Lin Lixin, Demirhan Haydar, Stone Lewi and He Daihai 2024. The 1978 English boarding school influenza outbreak: where the classic SEIR model fails. J. R. Soc. Interface.21: 20240394, which has been published in final form at http://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2024.0394.en_US
dc.subjectBayesian epidemic modelen_US
dc.subjectChildren’s pandemicen_US
dc.subjectDelay differential equationsen_US
dc.subjectInfluenza progression modelen_US
dc.subjectModellingen_US
dc.subjectResidence timeen_US
dc.titleThe 1978 English boarding school influenza outbreak: where the classic SEIR model failsen_US
dc.typeJournal/Magazine Articleen_US
dc.identifier.volume21en_US
dc.identifier.issue220en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1098/rsif.2024.0394en_US
dcterms.abstractPrevious work has failed to fit classic SEIR epidemic models satisfactorily to the prevalence data of the famous English boarding school 1978 influenza A/H1N1 outbreak during the children’s pandemic. It is still an open question whether a biologically plausible model can fit the prevalence time series and the attack rate correctly. To construct the final model, we first used an intentionally very flexible and overfitted discrete-time epidemiologic model to learn the epidemiological features from the data. The final model was a susceptible (S) – exposed (E) – infectious (I) – confined-to-bed (B) – convalescent (C) – recovered (R) model with time delay (constant residence time) in E and I compartments and multi-stage (Erlang-distributed residence time) in B and C compartments. We simultaneously fitted the reported B and C prevalence curves as well as the attack rate (proportion of children infected during the outbreak). The non-exponential residence times were crucial for good fits. The estimates of the generation time and the basic reproductive number (ℛ0) were biologically reasonable. A simplified discrete-time model was built and fitted using the Bayesian procedure. Our work not only provided an answer to the open question, but also demonstrated an approach to constructive model generation.en_US
dcterms.accessRightsopen accessen_US
dcterms.bibliographicCitationJournal of the Royal Society interface, Nov. 2024, v. 21, no. 220, 20240394en_US
dcterms.isPartOfJournal of the Royal Society interfaceen_US
dcterms.issued2024-11-
dc.identifier.eissn1742-5662en_US
dc.identifier.artn20240394en_US
dc.description.validate202411 bcchen_US
dc.description.oaAccepted Manuscripten_US
dc.identifier.FolderNumbera3233-
dc.identifier.SubFormID49814-
dc.description.fundingSourceRGCen_US
dc.description.fundingSourceOthersen_US
dc.description.fundingTextCollaborative Research Fund; the National Science Foundation of China; Australian Research Councilen_US
dc.description.pubStatusPublisheden_US
dc.description.oaCategoryGreen (AAM)en_US
dc.relation.rdatahttps://zenodo.org/records/13753469en_US
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