Contrast-enhanced CT-based radiomic analysis for determining the response to anti-programmed death-1 therapy in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients : a pilot study

Abstract

Background: In view of the fact that radiomics features have been reported as predictors of immunotherapy to various cancers, this study aimed to develop a prediction model to determine the response to anti-programmed death-1 (anti-PD-1) therapy in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients from contrast-enhanced CT (CECT) radiomics features. Methods: Radiomic analysis of images was performed retrospectively for image samples before and after anti-PD-1 treatment, and efficacy analysis was performed for the results of two different time node evaluations. A total of 68 image samples were included in this study. Quantitative radiomic features were extracted from the images, and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method was applied to select radiomic features. After obtaining selected features, three classification models were used to establish a radiomics model to predict the ESCC status and efficacy of therapy. A cross-validation strategy utilizing three folds was employed to train and test the model. Performance evaluation of the model was done using the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic, sensitivity, specificity, and precision metric. Results: Wavelet and area of gray level change (log-sigma) were the most significant radiomic features for predicting therapy efficacy. Fifteen radiomic features from the whole tumor and peritumoral regions were selected and comprised of the fusion radiomics score. A radiomics classification was developed with AUC of 0.82 and 0.884 in the before and after-therapy cohorts, respectively. Conclusions: The combined model incorporating radiomic features and clinical CECT predictors helps to predict the response to anti-PD-1therapy in patients with ESCC.