Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/10397/94076
Title: | Modelling epidemics with fractional-dose vaccination in response to limited vaccine supply | Authors: | Chen, Z Liu, K Liu, X Lou, Y |
Issue Date: | Feb-2020 | Source: | Journal of theoretical biology, Feb. 2020, v. 486, 110085 | Abstract: | The control strategies of emergency infectious diseases are constrained by limited medical resources. The fractional dose vaccination strategy as one of feasible strategies was proposed in response to global shortages of vaccine stockpiles. Although a variety of epidemic models have been developed under the circumstances of limited resources in treatment, few models particularly investigated vaccination strategies in resource-limited settings. In this paper, we develop a two-group SIR model with incorporation of proportionate mixing patterns and n-fold fractional dose vaccination related parameters to evaluate the efficiency of fractional dose vaccination on disease control at the population level. The existence and uniqueness of the final size of the two-group SIR epidemic model, the formulation of the basic reproduction number and the relationship between them are established. Moreover, numerical simulations are performed based on this two-group vector-free model to investigate the effectiveness of n-fold fractional dose vaccination by using the emergency outbreaks of yellow fever in Angola in 2016. By employing linear and nonlinear dose-response relationships, we compare the resulting fluctuations of four characteristics of the epidemics, which are the outbreak size, the peak time of the outbreak, the basic reproduction number and the infection attack rate (IAR). For both types of dose-response relationships, dose-fractionation takes positive effects in lowering the outbreak size, delay the peak time of the outbreak, reducing the basic reproduction number and the IAR of yellow fever only when the vaccine efficacy is high enough. Moreover, five-fold fractional dose vaccination strategy may not be the optimal vaccination strategy as proposed by the World Health Organization if the dose-response relationship is nonlinear. | Keywords: | Epidemic model Fractional dose vaccination The basic reproduction number The final size The outbreak size |
Publisher: | Academic Press | Journal: | Journal of theoretical biology | EISSN: | 0022-5193 | DOI: | 10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.110085 | Rights: | © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. © 2019. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/. The following publication Chen, Z., Liu, K., Liu, X., & Lou, Y. (2020). Modelling epidemics with fractional-dose vaccination in response to limited vaccine supply. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 486, 110085 is available at https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.110085. |
Appears in Collections: | Journal/Magazine Article |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Lou_Modelling_Epidemics_Fractional-Dose.pdf | Pre-Published version | 3.06 MB | Unknown | View/Open |
Page views
79
Last Week
1
1
Last month
Citations as of May 5, 2024
Downloads
31
Citations as of May 5, 2024
SCOPUSTM
Citations
6
Citations as of May 3, 2024
WEB OF SCIENCETM
Citations
6
Citations as of May 2, 2024
Google ScholarTM
Check
Altmetric
Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.