Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/10397/93844
DC Field | Value | Language |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor | Department of Applied Mathematics | en_US |
dc.creator | Zhao, S | en_US |
dc.creator | Zhao, Y | en_US |
dc.creator | Tang, B | en_US |
dc.creator | Gao, D | en_US |
dc.creator | Guo, Z | en_US |
dc.creator | Chong, MKC | en_US |
dc.creator | Musa, SS | en_US |
dc.creator | Cai, Y | en_US |
dc.creator | Wang, W | en_US |
dc.creator | He, D | en_US |
dc.creator | Wang, MH | en_US |
dc.date.accessioned | 2022-08-03T01:23:53Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2022-08-03T01:23:53Z | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10397/93844 | - |
dc.language.iso | en | en_US |
dc.publisher | Academic Press | en_US |
dc.rights | © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. | en_US |
dc.rights | © 2021. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ | en_US |
dc.rights | The following publication Zhao, S., Zhao, Y., Tang, B., Gao, D., Guo, Z., Chong, M. K., ... & Wang, M. H. (2021). Shrinkage in serial intervals across transmission generations of COVID-19. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 529, 110861 is available at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2021.110861 | en_US |
dc.subject | Contact tracing | en_US |
dc.subject | COVID-19 | en_US |
dc.subject | Serial interval | en_US |
dc.subject | Statistical modelling | en_US |
dc.subject | Transmission generation | en_US |
dc.title | Shrinkage in serial intervals across transmission generations of COVID-19 | en_US |
dc.type | Journal/Magazine Article | en_US |
dc.identifier.volume | 529 | en_US |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1016/j.jtbi.2021.110861 | en_US |
dcterms.abstract | One of the key epidemiological characteristics that shape the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is the serial interval (SI). Although SI is commonly considered following a probability distribution at a population scale, recent studies reported a slight shrinkage (or contraction) of the mean of effective SI across transmission generations or over time. Here, we develop a likelihood-based statistical inference framework with truncation to explore the change in SI across transmission generations after adjusting the impacts of case isolation. The COVID-19 contact tracing surveillance data in Hong Kong are used for exemplification. We find that for COVID-19, the mean of individual SI is likely to shrink with a factor at 0.72 per generation (95%CI: 0.54, 0.96) as the transmission generation increases, where a threshold may exist as the lower boundary of this shrinking process. We speculate that one of the probable explanations for the shrinkage in SI might be an outcome due to the competition among multiple candidate infectors within the same case cluster. Thus, the nonpharmaceutical interventive strategies are crucially important to block the transmission chains, and mitigate the COVID-19 epidemic. | en_US |
dcterms.accessRights | open access | en_US |
dcterms.bibliographicCitation | Journal of theoretical biology, 21 Nov. 2021, v. 529, 110861 | en_US |
dcterms.isPartOf | Journal of theoretical biology | en_US |
dcterms.issued | 2021-11-21 | - |
dc.identifier.scopus | 2-s2.0-85113633745 | - |
dc.identifier.pmid | 34390731 | - |
dc.identifier.eissn | 0022-5193 | en_US |
dc.identifier.artn | 110861 | en_US |
dc.description.validate | 202208 bcfc | en_US |
dc.description.oa | Accepted Manuscript | en_US |
dc.identifier.FolderNumber | AMA-0006 | - |
dc.description.fundingSource | RGC | en_US |
dc.description.fundingSource | Others | en_US |
dc.description.fundingText | Alibaba (China) Co. Ltd. | en_US |
dc.description.pubStatus | Published | en_US |
dc.identifier.OPUS | 55649926 | - |
Appears in Collections: | Journal/Magazine Article |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Musa_Shrinkage_Serial_Intervals.pdf | Pre-Published versions | 1.77 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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