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Title: Characteristics of an epidemic outbreak with a large initial infection size
Authors: Li, J
Lou, Y 
Issue Date: 2016
Source: Journal of biological dynamics, 2016, v. 10, no. 1, p. 366-378
Abstract: A deterministic model proposed in previous literatures to approximate the well-known Richards model is investigated. However, the model assumption of small initial value for infection size is released in the current manuscript. Taking the advantage of the closed form of solutions, we establish the epidemic characteristics of disease transmission: the outbreak size, the peak size and the turning point for the cumulative infected cases. It is shown that the usual disease outbreak threshold condition (the basic reproduction number R0 is greater than unity) fails to fully guarantee the existence of peaking time and turning point when the initial infection size is not relatively small. The epidemic characteristics not only depend on R0 but also on another index, the net reproduction number R0.
Keywords: Epidemic characteristics
Large initial infection size
Outbreak size
Peak size
Turning point
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Journal: Journal of biological dynamics 
ISSN: 1751-3758 (print)
EISSN: 1751-3766
DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2016.1205223
Rights: © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
The following publication Li, J., & Lou, Y. (2016). Characteristics of an epidemic outbreak with a large initial infection size. Journal of biological dynamics, 10(1), 366-378 is available at https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2016.1205223
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