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http://hdl.handle.net/10397/23700
Title: | A sparse gaussian process regression model for tourism demand forecasting in Hong Kong | Authors: | Wu, Q Law, R Xu, X |
Issue Date: | Apr-2012 | Source: | Expert systems with applications, Apr. 2012, v. 39, no. 5, p. 4769-4774 | Abstract: | In recent years, Gaussian process (GP) models have been popularly studied to solve hard machine learning problems. The models are important due to their flexible non-parametric modeling abilities using Mercer kernels and the Bayesian framework for probabilistic inference. In this paper, we propose a sparse GP regression (GPR) model for tourism demand forecasting in Hong Kong. The sparsification procedure of the GPR model not only decreases the computational complexity but also improves the generalization ability. We experiment the proposed model with monthly demand data that are relevant to Hong Kong's tourism industry, and compare the performance of the sparse GPR model with those of various kernel-based models to show its effectiveness. The proposed sparse GPR model shows that its forecasting capability outperforms those of the ARMA model and the two state-of-the-art SVM models. | Keywords: | Sparse Gaussian process Support vector machine Tourism demand forecasting Kernel machines |
Publisher: | Pergamon Press | Journal: | Expert systems with applications | ISSN: | 0957-4174 | EISSN: | 1873-6793 | DOI: | 10.1016/j.eswa.2011.09.159 | Rights: | © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved © 2011. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
Appears in Collections: | Journal/Magazine Article |
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a0635-n05_paper_Wu_et_al.pdf | Pre-Published version | 1.24 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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