Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/16867
PIRA download icon_1.1View/Download Full Text
Title: Varying elasticities and forecasting performance
Authors: Smeral, E
Song, H 
Issue Date: Mar-2015
Source: International journal of tourism research, Mar.-Apr. 2015, v. 17, no. 2, p. 140-150
Abstract: This study assumes that tourists' demand reactions to income and price changes are asymmetric at different phases of the business cycle. In order to test this hypothesis, we analyzed the demand for international tourism in five source markets using a modified growth rate (MGR) model. The empirical evidence demonstrates that income elasticity is indeed asymmetric across the business cycle in four source markets. In addition, asymmetric price effects were found for one source market. To compare forecasting performance, we also estimated a time-varying parameter (TVP) model. The results show that the MGR model generally outperforms the TVP model.
Keywords: Asymmetric income and price effects
Business cycle
Forecasting error
Time-varying parameter model
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Journal: International journal of tourism research 
ISSN: 1099-2340
EISSN: 1522-1970
DOI: 10.1002/jtr.1972
Rights: © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Smeral, E., & Song, H. (2015). Varying elasticities and forecasting performance. International Journal of Tourism Research, 17(2), 140-150, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.1972. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions.
Appears in Collections:Journal/Magazine Article

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat 
TVP_Elasticity_-_Smeral-Song.pdfPre-Published version997 kBAdobe PDFView/Open
Open Access Information
Status open access
File Version Final Accepted Manuscript
Access
View full-text via PolyU eLinks SFX Query
Show full item record

Page views

92
Last Week
0
Last month
Citations as of Mar 24, 2024

Downloads

110
Citations as of Mar 24, 2024

SCOPUSTM   
Citations

36
Last Week
0
Last month
0
Citations as of Mar 28, 2024

WEB OF SCIENCETM
Citations

33
Last Week
0
Last month
0
Citations as of Mar 28, 2024

Google ScholarTM

Check

Altmetric


Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.