Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/16867
Title: Varying elasticities and forecasting performance
Authors: Smeral, E
Song, H 
Keywords: Asymmetric income and price effects
Business cycle
Forecasting error
Time-varying parameter model
Issue Date: 2015
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Source: International journal of tourism research, 2015, v. 17, no. 2, p. 140-150 How to cite?
Journal: International journal of tourism research 
Abstract: This study assumes that tourists' demand reactions to income and price changes are asymmetric at different phases of the business cycle. In order to test this hypothesis, we analyzed the demand for international tourism in five source markets using a modified growth rate (MGR) model. The empirical evidence demonstrates that income elasticity is indeed asymmetric across the business cycle in four source markets. In addition, asymmetric price effects were found for one source market. To compare forecasting performance, we also estimated a time-varying parameter (TVP) model. The results show that the MGR model generally outperforms the TVP model.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/16867
ISSN: 1099-2340
EISSN: 1522-1970
DOI: 10.1002/jtr.1972
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