Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/16867
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dc.contributorSchool of Hotel and Tourism Managementen_US
dc.creatorSmeral, Een_US
dc.creatorSong, Hen_US
dc.date.accessioned2015-07-13T10:34:05Z-
dc.date.available2015-07-13T10:34:05Z-
dc.identifier.issn1099-2340en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10397/16867-
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherJohn Wiley & Sonsen_US
dc.rights© 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.en_US
dc.rightsThis is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Smeral, E., & Song, H. (2015). Varying elasticities and forecasting performance. International Journal of Tourism Research, 17(2), 140-150, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.1972. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions.en_US
dc.subjectAsymmetric income and price effectsen_US
dc.subjectBusiness cycleen_US
dc.subjectForecasting erroren_US
dc.subjectTime-varying parameter modelen_US
dc.titleVarying elasticities and forecasting performanceen_US
dc.typeJournal/Magazine Articleen_US
dc.identifier.spage140en_US
dc.identifier.epage150en_US
dc.identifier.volume17en_US
dc.identifier.issue2en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/jtr.1972en_US
dcterms.abstractThis study assumes that tourists' demand reactions to income and price changes are asymmetric at different phases of the business cycle. In order to test this hypothesis, we analyzed the demand for international tourism in five source markets using a modified growth rate (MGR) model. The empirical evidence demonstrates that income elasticity is indeed asymmetric across the business cycle in four source markets. In addition, asymmetric price effects were found for one source market. To compare forecasting performance, we also estimated a time-varying parameter (TVP) model. The results show that the MGR model generally outperforms the TVP model.en_US
dcterms.accessRightsopen accessen_US
dcterms.bibliographicCitationInternational journal of tourism research, Mar.-Apr. 2015, v. 17, no. 2, p. 140-150en_US
dcterms.isPartOfInternational journal of tourism researchen_US
dcterms.issued2015-03-
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-84924447164-
dc.identifier.eissn1522-1970en_US
dc.identifier.rosgroupid2014001809-
dc.description.ros2014-2015 > Academic research: refereed > Publication in refereed journalen_US
dc.description.oaAccepted Manuscripten_US
dc.identifier.FolderNumbera0666-n05-
dc.identifier.SubFormID864-
dc.description.fundingSourceRGCen_US
dc.description.fundingTextPolyU 5475/12Hen_US
dc.description.pubStatusPublisheden_US
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