Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/13096
Title: Accuracy and bias of experts' adjusted forecasts
Authors: Lin, VS
Goodwin, P
Song, H 
Keywords: Accuracy
Bias
Judgmental adjustment
Tourism forecasts
Issue Date: 2014
Publisher: Elsevier Ltd
Source: Annals of tourism research, 2014, v. 48, p. 156-174 How to cite?
Journal: Annals of Tourism Research 
Abstract: This study investigates whether experts' group-based judgmental adjustments to econometric forecasts of tourism demand improve the accuracy of the forecasts and whether the adjusted forecasts are unbiased. The Delphi method was used to aggregate experts' judgmental adjustments and a range of error measures and statistical tests were employed to evaluate forecast accuracy. Regression analysis was used to investigate whether the statistical and judgmentally-adjusted forecasts were unbiased. The hypothesis tests suggested that, on average, the adjustments of the Delphi panel improved forecast accuracy though the group-adjusted forecasts were found to be biased for some of the individual markets. In-depth interviews with the Delphi panellists provided further insights into the biases that were associated with the Delphi surveys.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/13096
ISSN: 0160-7383
DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2014.06.005
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