Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/13096
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dc.contributorSchool of Hotel and Tourism Management-
dc.creatorLin, VS-
dc.creatorGoodwin, P-
dc.creatorSong, H-
dc.date.accessioned2014-12-19T07:10:28Z-
dc.date.available2014-12-19T07:10:28Z-
dc.identifier.issn0160-7383-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10397/13096-
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherPergamon Pressen_US
dc.rights© 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.en_US
dc.rights© 2014. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.en_US
dc.subjectAccuracyen_US
dc.subjectBiasen_US
dc.subjectJudgmental adjustmenten_US
dc.subjectTourism forecastsen_US
dc.titleAccuracy and bias of experts' adjusted forecastsen_US
dc.typeJournal/Magazine Articleen_US
dc.identifier.spage156-
dc.identifier.epage174-
dc.identifier.volume48-
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.annals.2014.06.005-
dcterms.abstractThis study investigates whether experts' group-based judgmental adjustments to econometric forecasts of tourism demand improve the accuracy of the forecasts and whether the adjusted forecasts are unbiased. The Delphi method was used to aggregate experts' judgmental adjustments and a range of error measures and statistical tests were employed to evaluate forecast accuracy. Regression analysis was used to investigate whether the statistical and judgmentally-adjusted forecasts were unbiased. The hypothesis tests suggested that, on average, the adjustments of the Delphi panel improved forecast accuracy though the group-adjusted forecasts were found to be biased for some of the individual markets. In-depth interviews with the Delphi panellists provided further insights into the biases that were associated with the Delphi surveys.-
dcterms.accessRightsopen access-
dcterms.bibliographicCitationAnnals of tourism research, Sept. 2014, v. 48, p. 156-174-
dcterms.isPartOfAnnals of tourism research-
dcterms.issued2014-09-
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-84904269267-
dc.identifier.eissn1873-7722-
dc.identifier.rosgroupid2014001795-
dc.description.ros2014-2015 > Academic research: refereed > Publication in refereed journal-
dc.description.oaAccepted Manuscript-
dc.identifier.FolderNumbera0681-n06-
dc.identifier.SubFormID885-
dc.description.fundingSourceRGC-
dc.description.fundingTextPolyU 5969/13H-
dc.description.pubStatusPublished-
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