Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/99967
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dc.contributorDepartment of Applied Mathematics-
dc.contributorSchool of Nursing-
dc.creatorZhao, Sen_US
dc.creatorCao, Pen_US
dc.creatorGao, Den_US
dc.creatorZhuang, Zen_US
dc.creatorWang, Wen_US
dc.creatorRan, Jen_US
dc.creatorWang, Ken_US
dc.creatorYang, Len_US
dc.creatorEinollahi, MRen_US
dc.creatorLou, Yen_US
dc.creatorHe, Den_US
dc.creatorWang, MHen_US
dc.date.accessioned2023-07-26T05:49:29Z-
dc.date.available2023-07-26T05:49:29Z-
dc.identifier.issn2468-2152en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10397/99967-
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherKeAi Communications Co.en_US
dc.rights© 2022 The Authors. Publishing services by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communications Co. Ltd.en_US
dc.rightsThis is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).en_US
dc.rightsThe following publication Zhao, S., Cao, P., Gao, D., Zhuang, Z., Wang, W., Ran, J., . . . Wang, M. H. (2022). Modelling COVID-19 outbreak on the diamond princess ship using the public surveillance data. Infectious Disease Modelling, 7(2), 189-195 is available at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2022.05.005.en_US
dc.subjectCOVID-19en_US
dc.subjectReproduction numberen_US
dc.subjectTransmissionen_US
dc.subjectDiamond princess shipen_US
dc.titleModelling COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess ship using the public surveillance dataen_US
dc.typeJournal/Magazine Articleen_US
dc.identifier.spage189en_US
dc.identifier.epage195en_US
dc.identifier.volume7en_US
dc.identifier.issue2en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.idm.2022.05.005en_US
dcterms.abstractThe novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak on the Diamond Princess (DP) ship has caused over 634 cases as of February 20, 2020. We model the transmission process on DP ship as a stochastic branching process, and estimate the reproduction number at the innitial phase of 2.9 (95%CrI: 1.7–7.7). The epidemic doubling time is 3.4 days, and thus timely actions on COVID-19 control were crucial. We estimate the COVID-19 transmissibility reduced 34% after the quarantine program on the DP ship which was implemented on February 5. According to the model simulation, relocating the population at risk may sustainably decrease the epidemic size, postpone the timing of epidemic peak, and thus relieve the tensive demands in the healthcare. The lesson learnt on the ship should be considered in other similar settings.-
dcterms.accessRightsopen accessen_US
dcterms.bibliographicCitationInfectious disease modelling, June 2022, v. 7, no. 2, p. 189-195en_US
dcterms.isPartOfInfectious disease modellingen_US
dcterms.issued2022-06-
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85130937181-
dc.identifier.eissn2468-0427en_US
dc.description.validate202307 bcch-
dc.description.oaVersion of Recorden_US
dc.identifier.FolderNumberOA_Scopus/WOS-
dc.description.fundingSourceRGCen_US
dc.description.fundingSourceOthersen_US
dc.description.fundingTextAlibaba-Hong Kong Polytechnic University; National Natural Science Foundation of China; General Research Fund of Shanghai Normal University; State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Controlen_US
dc.description.pubStatusPublisheden_US
dc.description.oaCategoryCCen_US
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