Developing a hybrid risk assessment method for prioritizing the critical risks of temporary accommodation sites after destructive earthquakes

Abstract

One of the most critical challenges in preventive planning and disaster management is the multitudinous uncertainties involved in decision-making. Previous studies showed the usefulness of intuitionistic fuzzy sets for considering uncertainties in decision-making process. Hence, the current study aims to present a combined model using Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets and Risk Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (IF-RFMEA) to determine and prioritize the critical risks of temporary accommodation sites after destructive earthquakes in Iran and bridge the existing research gaps in the literature. To this end, 49 common temporary accommodation risks after earthquakes were identified via a desktop literature survey. Then, the fuzzy Delphi technique was applied to determine the top 20 critical risks with the highest priorities according to experts for evaluation using the proposed method. The Delphi panel members included 18 experts based in Iran with relevant hands-on experience in crisis management and risk management. Finally, 20 identified critical risks were evaluated using three criteria of the probability of occurrence, level of effect, and detection value using the IF-RFMEA technique. According to the analytical results, infectious disease challenges, mental and psychological disorders among survivors, and unemployment and closing of businesses, were the most critical risks after earthquakes in the region. The proposed method of analysis can diminish uncertainties and adopt the main criteria of the probability of occurrence, level of effect, and detection value to improve risk assessment results and analysis in relation to the critical risks of temporary accommodation sites after destructive earthquakes.