Multi-spatiotemporal AOD trends and association with land use changes over the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area during 2001–2021

Abstract

Analyzing long-term variations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) is beneficial for determining high-pollutant-risk areas and formulating mitigation policies. In this study, multi-spatiotemporal trends and periodicity of AOD, as well as the persistence over the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area from 2001 to 2021, were investigated by the extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition (ESMD), Theil-Sen Median trend analysis and Hurst exponent. The results elucidate that AOD exhibits fluctuant variations during the 21-year period with the year 2012 as the turning point. There is a slight upward tendency (0.009 year−1) in the pre-2012 period but a pronounced downward trend (− 0.03 year−1) in the post-2012 period, suggesting an overall declining trend in the study area. The northern cities in the area present an increasing-stable-decreasing trend of monthly average AOD, whereas other cities have an increasing-fluctuating-decreasing trend over the study period. The decreasing rate in the western parts is higher than that in the eastern parts, like Zhaoqing, Jiangmen and Foshan city. A continuous decline of AOD is dominated over the study area, whereas an anti-persistence tendency is accumulated in the northeastern parts. Additionally, elevated AOD can be observed in unused land, water bodies and construction land, while grassland, cropland and woodland have lower AOD. The decreasing rate is larger when land-use types with high AOD are converted to those with low AOD; otherwise, the decreasing rate is smaller. The results have a great significance for improving the understanding of long-term variations of AOD, as well as providing a scientific basis to formulate environmental protection and mitigation practices.