Modeling the 2016–2017 Yemen cholera outbreak with the impact of limited medical resources

Abstract

We present a mathematical model to investigate the transmission dynamics of the 2016–2017 Yemen cholera outbreak. Our model describes the interaction between the human hosts and the pathogenic bacteria, under the impact of limited medical resources. We fit our model to Yemen epidemic data published by the World Health Organization, at both the country and regional levels. We find that the Yemen cholera outbreak is shaped by the interplay of environmental, socioeconomic, and climatic factors. Our results suggest that improvement of the public health system and strategic implementation of control measures with respect to time and location are key to future cholera prevention and intervention in Yemen. © 2018 Elsevier Ltd