Dynamical analysis of chikungunya and dengue co-infection model

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to design and analyze a nonlinear mechanistic model for chikungunya (CHIKV) and dengue (DENV) co-endemicity. The model can assess the epidemiological consequences of the spread of each disease on the co-infection transmission dynamics. Although the two diseases are different, they exhibit similar dynamical features which show that to combat/control CHIKV virus (or co-infection with DENV virus) we can employ DENV control strategies and vice versa. Our analytical results show that each sub-model and the full model have two disease-free equilibria (i.e., trivial disease-free equilibrium (TDFE) and non-trivial disease-free equilibrium (NTDFE)). Further, qualitative analyses reveal that each of the sub-models exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation (where a stable NTDFE co-exits with a stable endemic equilibrium (EE)). Epidemiologically, this implies that, in each case (CHIKV or DENV), the basic requirement of making the associated reproduction number to be less-than unity is no longer sufficient for the disease eradication. We further highlight that the full model, consisting of twenty-six (26) mutually exclusive compartments representing the human and mosquito dynamics, also exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation. We fit the full model and its sub-models using realistic data from India. Sensitivity analysis using the partial rank correlation coefficient (PRCC) is used for ranking the importance of each parameter-output. The results suggested that the mosquito removal rates, the transmission rates, and the mosquito maturation rate are the top control parameters for combating CHIKV, DENV and CHIKV-DENV co-infection outbreaks.