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http://hdl.handle.net/10397/95434
Title: | The second wave of COVID-19 in South and Southeast Asia and the effects of vaccination | Authors: | Song, H Fan, G Liu, Y Wang, X He, D |
Issue Date: | Dec-2021 | Source: | Frontiers in medicine, Dec. 2021, v. 8, 773110 | Abstract: | Background: By February 2021, the overall impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in South and Southeast Asia was relatively mild. Surprisingly, in early April 2021, the second wave significantly impacted the population and garnered widespread international attention. Methods: This study focused on the nine countries with the highest cumulative deaths from the disease as of August 17, 2021. We look at COVID-19 transmission dynamics in South and Southeast Asia using the reported death data, which fits a mathematical model with a time-varying transmission rate. Results: We estimated the transmission rate, infection fatality rate (IFR), infection attack rate (IAR), and the effects of vaccination in the nine countries in South and Southeast Asia. Our study suggested that the IAR is still low in most countries, and increased vaccination is required to prevent future waves. Conclusion: Implementing non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs) could have helped South and Southeast Asia keep COVID-19 under control in 2020, as demonstrated in our estimated low-transmission rate. We believe that the emergence of the new Delta variant, social unrest, and migrant workers could have triggered the second wave of COVID-19. |
Keywords: | COVID-19 Delta variants Infection attack rate Infection fatality rate Mathematical modeling South Asia Southeast Asia Vaccination |
Publisher: | Frontiers Research Foundation | Journal: | Frontiers in medicine | EISSN: | 2296-858X | DOI: | 10.3389/fmed.2021.773110 | Rights: | Copyright © 2021 Song, Fan, Liu, Wang and He. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY) (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. The following publication Song H, Fan G, Liu Y, Wang X and He D (2021) The Second Wave of COVID-19 in South and Southeast Asia and the Effects of Vaccination. Front. Med. 8:773110 is available at https://doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2021.773110. |
Appears in Collections: | Journal/Magazine Article |
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