A system dynamics model for simulating urban sustainability performance : a China case study

Abstract

China has been experiencing a rapid urbanization process. Various relevant policies and strategies have been implemented for sustainable urbanization. For a better understanding of sustainable urbanization, many research efforts have been made on urban sustainability assessment. The traditional indicator index is normally used to evaluate the urban sustainability performance. However, the urban development is a complex system, and the existing methods cannot reflect the systemic interactions among variables. Therefore, this paper aims to develop a system dynamics model for simulating urban sustainability performance. The system dynamics model comprises four sub-systems, namely, the economic sector, social sector, environment sector and resource sector. Then, the system dynamics model is used to simulate the sustainability performance of the city, Beijing, with three scenarios. The results indicate that the system dynamics modelling is a useful tool for simulating urban sustainability performance and can help policy makers formulate relevant strategies for a better sustainable development of cities.