Identification and prioritization of critical risk factors of commercial and recreational complex building projects : a Delphi study using the TOPSIS method

Abstract

Construction development of Commercial and Recreational Complex Building Projects (CRCBPs) is one of the community needs of many developing countries. Since the implementation of these projects is usually very costly, identifying and evaluating their Critical Risk Factors (CRFs) are of significant importance. Therefore, the current study aims to identify and prioritize CRFs of CRCBPs in the Iranian context. A descriptive-survey method was used in this research; the statistical population, selected based on the purposive sampling method, includes 30 construction experts with hands-on experience in CRCBPs. A questionnaire related to the risk identification stage was developed based on a detailed study of the research literature and also using the Delphi survey method; 82 various risks were finally identified. In order to confirm the opinions of experts in identifying the potential risks, Kendall's coefficient of concordance was used. In the first stage of data analysis, qualitative evaluation was performed by calculating the severity of risk effect and determining the cumulative risk index, based on which 25 CRFs of CRCBPs were identified for more accurate evaluation. At this stage, the identified CRFs were evaluated based on multi-criteria decision-making techniques and using the TOPSIS technique. Results show that the ten CRFs of CRCBPs are external threats from international relations, exchange rate changes, bank interest rate fluctuations, traffic licenses, access to skilled labor, changes in regional regulations, the condition of adjacent buildings, fluctuations and changes in inflation, failure to select a suitable and qualified consultant, and employer's previous experiences and records. Obviously, the current study's results and findings can be considered by CRCBPs in both the private and public sectors for proper effective risk identification, evaluation, and mitigation.