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http://hdl.handle.net/10397/91335
| Title: | Estimating the generation interval and inferring the latent period of COVID-19 from the contact tracing data | Authors: | Zhao, S Tang, B Musa, SS Ma, S Zhang, J Zeng, M Yun, Q Guo, W Zheng, Y Yang, Z Peng, Z Chong, MK Javanbakht, M He, D Wang, MH |
Issue Date: | Sep-2021 | Source: | Epidemics, Sept. 2021, v. 36, 100482 | Abstract: | The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged by end of 2019, and became a serious public health threat globally in less than half a year. The generation interval and latent period, though both are of importance in understanding the features of COVID-19 transmission, are difficult to observe, and thus they can rarely be learnt from surveillance data empirically. In this study, we develop a likelihood framework to estimate the generation interval and incubation period simultaneously by using the contact tracing data of COVID-19 cases, and infer the pre-symptomatic transmission proportion and latent period thereafter. We estimate the mean of incubation period at 6.8 days (95 %CI: 6.2, 7.5) and SD at 4.1 days (95 %CI: 3.7, 4.8), and the mean of generation interval at 6.7 days (95 %CI: 5.4, 7.6) and SD at 1.8 days (95 %CI: 0.3, 3.8). The basic reproduction number is estimated ranging from 1.9 to 3.6, and there are 49.8 % (95 %CI: 33.3, 71.5) of the secondary COVID-19 infections likely due to pre-symptomatic transmission. Using the best estimates of model parameters, we further infer the mean latent period at 3.3 days (95 %CI: 0.2, 7.9). Our findings highlight the importance of both isolation for symptomatic cases, and for the pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic cases. | Keywords: | Contact tracing COVID-19 Generation interval Incubation period Latent period Serial interval Statistical inference |
Publisher: | Elsevier | Journal: | Epidemics | ISSN: | 1755-4365 | EISSN: | 1878-0067 | DOI: | 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100482 | Rights: | © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). The following publication Zhao, S., Tang, B., Musa, S. S., Ma, S., Zhang, J., Zeng, M., ... & Wang, M. H. (2021). Estimating the generation interval and inferring the latent period of COVID-19 from the contact tracing data. Epidemics, 36, 100482 is available at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100482 |
| Appears in Collections: | Journal/Magazine Article |
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