Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/88992
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dc.contributorDepartment of Applied Mathematicsen_US
dc.contributorSchool of Nursingen_US
dc.creatorHe, Den_US
dc.creatorZhao, Sen_US
dc.creatorXu, Xen_US
dc.creatorLin, Qen_US
dc.creatorZhuang, Zen_US
dc.creatorCao, Pen_US
dc.creatorWang, MHen_US
dc.creatorLou, Yen_US
dc.creatorXiao, Len_US
dc.creatorWu, Yen_US
dc.creatorYang, Len_US
dc.date.accessioned2021-01-15T07:14:40Z-
dc.date.available2021-01-15T07:14:40Z-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10397/88992-
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherBioMed Centralen_US
dc.rights© The Author(s). 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.en_US
dc.rightsThe following publication He, D., Zhao, S., Xu, X. et al. Low dispersion in the infectiousness of COVID-19 cases implies difficulty in control. BMC Public Health 20, 1558 (2020), is available at https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-020-09624-2en_US
dc.subjectBasic reproductive numberen_US
dc.subjectCOVID-19en_US
dc.subjectDispersionen_US
dc.subjectMitigationen_US
dc.subjectNegative binomialen_US
dc.titleLow dispersion in the infectiousness of COVID-19 cases implies difficulty in controlen_US
dc.typeJournal/Magazine Articleen_US
dc.identifier.spage1en_US
dc.identifier.epage4en_US
dc.identifier.volume20en_US
dc.identifier.issue1en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1186/s12889-020-09624-2en_US
dcterms.abstractThe individual infectiousness of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), quantified by the number of secondary cases of a typical index case, is conventionally modelled by a negative-binomial (NB) distribution. Based on patient data of 9120 confirmed cases in China, we calculated the variation of the individual infectiousness, i.e., the dispersion parameter k of the NB distribution, at 0.70 (95% confidence interval: 0.59, 0.98). This suggests that the dispersion in the individual infectiousness is probably low, thus COVID-19 infection is relatively easy to sustain in the population and more challenging to control. Instead of focusing on the much fewer super spreading events, we also need to focus on almost every case to effectively reduce transmission.en_US
dcterms.accessRightsopen accessen_US
dcterms.bibliographicCitationBMC public health, 2020, v. 20, no. 1, 1558, p. 1-4en_US
dcterms.isPartOfBMC public healthen_US
dcterms.issued2020-
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85092755021-
dc.identifier.pmid33066755-
dc.identifier.eissn1471-2458en_US
dc.identifier.artn1558en_US
dc.description.validate202101 bcrcen_US
dc.description.oaVersion of Recorden_US
dc.identifier.FolderNumbera0982-n09, OA_Scopus/WOSen_US
dc.identifier.SubFormID2268-
dc.description.fundingSourceOthersen_US
dc.description.fundingTextP0031768en_US
dc.description.pubStatusPublisheden_US
dc.description.oaCategoryCCen_US
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