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http://hdl.handle.net/10397/87649
Title: | Preliminary estimates of the reproduction number of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Republic of Korea and Italy by 5 March 2020 | Authors: | Zhuang, Z Zhao, S Lin, Q Cao, P Lou, Y Yang, L Yang, S He, D Xiao, L |
Issue Date: | 2020 | Source: | International journal of infectious diseases, 2020, v. 95, p. 308-310 | Abstract: | The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has caused 6088 cases and 41 deaths in Republic of Korea, and 3144 cases and 107 death in Italy by 5 March 2020, respectively. We modelled the transmission process in the Republic of Korea and Italy with a stochastic model, and estimated the basic reproduction number R0 as 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3–2.9) or 3.2 (95% CI: 2.9–3.5) in the Republic of Korea, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 31 January or 5 February 2020, and 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3–2.9) or 3.3 (95% CI: 3.0–3.6) in Italy, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 5 February or 10 February 2020, respectively. | Keywords: | Basic reproduction number Coronavirus disease 2019 COVID-19 Italy Republic of Korea |
Publisher: | Elsevier | Journal: | International journal of infectious diseases | ISSN: | 1201-9712 | DOI: | 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.04.044 | Rights: | © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases.This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). The following publication Zhuang, Z., Zhao, S., Lin, Q., Cao, P., Lou, Y., Yang, L., ... & Xiao, L. (2020). Preliminary estimating the reproduction number of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Republic of Korea and Italy by 5 March 2020. International Journal of Infectious Diseases v. 95, p. 308-310 is available at https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.04.044 |
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