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| Title: | Modelling the effective reproduction number of vector-borne diseases : the yellow fever outbreak in Luanda, Angola 2015-2016 as an example | Authors: | Zhao, S Musa, SS Hebert, JT Cao, PH Ran, JJ Meng, JY He, D Qin, J |
Issue Date: | 2020 | Source: | PeerJ, 27 Feb. 2020, v. 8, e8601, p. 1-21 | Abstract: | The burden of vector-borne diseases (Dengue, Zika virus, yellow fever, etc.) gradually increased in the past decade across the globe. Mathematical modelling on infectious diseases helps to study the transmission dynamics of the pathogens. Theoretically, the diseases can be controlled and eventually eradicated by maintaining the effective reproduction number, (R-eff), strictly less than 1. We established a vector-host compartmental model, and derived (R-eff) for vector-borne diseases. The analytic form of the (R-eff) was found to be the product of the basic reproduction number and the geometric average of the susceptibilities of the host and vector populations. The (R-eff) formula was demonstrated to be consistent with the estimates of the 2015-2016 yellow fever outbreak in Luanda, and distinguished the second minor epidemic wave. For those using the compartmental model to study the vector-borne infectious disease epidemics, we further remark that it is important to be aware of whether one or two generations is considered for the transition "from host to vector to host" in reproduction number calculation. | Keywords: | Reproduction number Vector-borne disease Epidemic Mathematical modelling Yellow fever Angola Luanda |
Publisher: | PeerJ, Ltd. | Journal: | PeerJ | EISSN: | 2167-8359 | DOI: | 10.7717/peerj.8601 | Rights: | © 2020 Zhao et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, reproduction and adaptation in any medium and for any purpose provided that it is properly attributed. For attribution, the original author(s), title, publication source (PeerJ) and either DOI or URL of the article must be cited. The following publication Zhao S, Musa SS, Hebert JT, Cao P, Ran J, Meng J, He D, Qin J. 2020. Modelling the effective reproduction number of vector-borne diseases: the yellow fever outbreak in Luanda, Angola 2015–2016 as an example. PeerJ 8:e8601 is available at https://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.8601 |
| Appears in Collections: | Journal/Magazine Article |
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