Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/81967
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dc.contributorDepartment of Applied Mathematics-
dc.creatorZhao, Sen_US
dc.creatorMusa, SSen_US
dc.creatorLin, QYen_US
dc.creatorRan, JJen_US
dc.creatorYang, GPen_US
dc.creatorWang, WMen_US
dc.creatorLou, YJen_US
dc.creatorYang, Len_US
dc.creatorGao, DZen_US
dc.creatorHe, DHen_US
dc.creatorWang, MHen_US
dc.date.accessioned2020-04-23T04:09:09Z-
dc.date.available2020-04-23T04:09:09Z-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10397/81967-
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherMolecular Diversity Preservation International (MDPI)en_US
dc.rights© 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).en_US
dc.rightsThe following publication Zhao, S.; Musa, S.S.; Lin, Q.; Ran, J.; Yang, G.; Wang, W.; Lou, Y.; Yang, L.; Gao, D.; He, D.; Wang, M.H. Estimating the Unreported Number of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Cases in China in the First Half of January 2020: A Data-Driven Modelling Analysis of the Early Outbreak. J. Clin. Med. 2020, 9, 388. is available at https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jcm9020388en_US
dc.subjectNovel coronavirusen_US
dc.subjectOutbreaken_US
dc.subjectModellingen_US
dc.subjectUnderreportingen_US
dc.subjectReproduction numberen_US
dc.subjectChinaen_US
dc.titleEstimating the unreported number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases in China in the first half of January 2020 : a data-driven modelling analysis of the early outbreaken_US
dc.typeJournal/Magazine Articleen_US
dc.identifier.spage1en_US
dc.identifier.epage6en_US
dc.identifier.volume9en_US
dc.identifier.issue2en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.3390/jcm9020388en_US
dcterms.abstractBackground: In December 2019, an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) emerged in Wuhan, China and has swiftly spread to other parts of China and a number of foreign countries. The 2019-nCoV cases might have been under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020, and thus we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number, R-0, of 2019-nCoV. Methods: We modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1 December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through the exponential growth. The number of unreported cases was determined by the maximum likelihood estimation. We used the serial intervals (SI) of infection caused by two other well-known coronaviruses (CoV), Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) CoVs, as approximations of the unknown SI for 2019-nCoV to estimate R-0. Results: We confirmed that the initial growth phase followed an exponential growth pattern. The under-reporting was likely to have resulted in 469 (95% CI: 403-540) unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after 17 January 2020 was likely to have increased 21-fold (95% CI: 18-25) in comparison to the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average. We estimated the R-0 of 2019-nCoV at 2.56 (95% CI: 2.49-2.63). Conclusion: The under-reporting was likely to have occurred during the first half of January 2020 and should be considered in future investigation.-
dcterms.accessRightsopen accessen_US
dcterms.bibliographicCitationJournal of clinical medicine, Feb. 2020, v. 9, no. 2, 388, p. 1-6en_US
dcterms.isPartOfJournal of clinical medicineen_US
dcterms.issued2020-02-
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000518823000100-
dc.identifier.pmid32024089-
dc.identifier.eissn2077-0383en_US
dc.identifier.artn388en_US
dc.description.validate202004 bcrc-
dc.description.oaVersion of Recorden_US
dc.identifier.FolderNumberOA_Othersen_US
dc.description.pubStatusPublisheden_US
dc.description.oaCategoryCCen_US
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