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http://hdl.handle.net/10397/81891
| Title: | A conceptual model for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China with individual reaction and governmental action | Authors: | Lin, Q Zhao, S Gao, D Lou, Y Yang, S Musa, SS Wang, MH Cai, Y Wang, W Yang, L He, D |
Issue Date: | 2020 | Source: | International journal of infectious diseases, 2020, v. 93, p. 211-216 | Abstract: | The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, emerged in Wuhan, China in the end of 2019, has claimed more than 2600 lives as of 24 February 2020 and posed a huge threat to global public health. The Chinese government has implemented control measures including setting up special hospitals and travel restriction to mitigate the spread. We propose conceptual models for the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan with the consideration of individual behavioural reaction and governmental actions, e.g., holiday extension, travel restriction, hospitalisation and quarantine. We employe the estimates of these two key components from the 1918 influenza pandemic in London, United Kingdom, incorporated zoonotic introductions and the emigration, and then compute future trends and the reporting ratio. The model is concise in structure, and it successfully captures the course of the COVID-19 outbreak, and thus sheds light on understanding the trends of the outbreak. | Keywords: | City lockdown COVID-19 Epidemic Governmental action Individual reaction Mathematical modelling |
Publisher: | Elsevier | Journal: | International journal of infectious diseases | ISSN: | 1201-9712 | DOI: | 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.058 | Rights: | © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases.This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). The following publication Lin, Q., Zhao, S., Gao, D., Lou, Y., Yang, S., Musa, S. S., ... & He, D. (2020). A conceptual model for the outbreak of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China with individual reaction and governmental action. International Journal of Infectious Diseases. is available at https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.058 |
| Appears in Collections: | Journal/Magazine Article |
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