Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/10397/79392
DC Field | Value | Language |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor | Department of Applied Mathematics | - |
dc.creator | Zhao, S | en_US |
dc.creator | Lou, Y | en_US |
dc.creator | Chiu, APY | en_US |
dc.creator | He, D | en_US |
dc.date.accessioned | 2018-11-26T09:31:14Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2018-11-26T09:31:14Z | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 0022-5193 | en_US |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10397/79392 | - |
dc.language.iso | en | en_US |
dc.publisher | Academic Press | en_US |
dc.rights | © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. | - |
dc.rights | © 2018. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/. | - |
dc.rights | The following publication Zhao, S., Lou, Y., Chiu, A. P. Y., & He, D. (2018). Modelling the skip-and-resurgence of Japanese encephalitis epidemics in Hong Kong. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 454, 1-10 is available at https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2018.05.017. | - |
dc.subject | Japanese encephalitis virus | - |
dc.subject | Mathematical modelling | - |
dc.subject | Skip-and-resurgence | - |
dc.subject | Vector-free transmission | - |
dc.title | Modelling the skip-and-resurgence of Japanese encephalitis epidemics in Hong Kong | en_US |
dc.type | Journal/Magazine Article | en_US |
dc.identifier.spage | 1 | en_US |
dc.identifier.epage | 10 | en_US |
dc.identifier.volume | 454 | en_US |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1016/j.jtbi.2018.05.017 | en_US |
dcterms.abstract | Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is a zoonotic mosquito-borne virus, persisting in pigs, Ardeid birds and Culex mosquitoes. It is endemic to China and Southeastern Asia. The case-fatality ratio (CFR) or the rate of permanent psychiatric sequelae is 30% among symptomatic patients. There were no reported local JEV human cases between 2006 and 2010 in Hong Kong, but it was followed by a resurgence of cases from 2011 to 2017. The mechanism behind this “skip-and-resurgence” patterns is unclear. This work aims to reveal the mechanism behind the “skip-and-resurgence” patterns using mathematical modelling and likelihood-based inference techniques. We found that pig-to-pig transmission increases the size of JEV epidemics but is unlikely to maintain the same level of transmission among pigs. The disappearance of JEV human cases in 2006–2010 could be explained by a sudden reduction of the population of farm pigs as a result of the implementation of the voluntary “pig-rearing licence surrendering” policy. The resurgence could be explained by of a new strain in 2011, which increased the transmissibility of the virus or the spill-over ratio from reservoir to host or both. | - |
dcterms.accessRights | open access | - |
dcterms.bibliographicCitation | Journal of theoretical biology, 2018, v. 454, p. 1-10 | en_US |
dcterms.isPartOf | Journal of theoretical biology | en_US |
dcterms.issued | 2018 | - |
dc.identifier.scopus | 2-s2.0-85048484009 | - |
dc.identifier.pmid | 29792875 | - |
dc.identifier.eissn | 1095-8541 | en_US |
dc.description.validate | 201811 bcma | - |
dc.description.oa | Accepted Manuscript | - |
dc.identifier.FolderNumber | a1560, AMA-0341 | - |
dc.identifier.SubFormID | 45423 | - |
dc.description.fundingSource | RGC | - |
dc.description.pubStatus | Published | - |
dc.identifier.OPUS | 6845444 | - |
dc.description.oaCategory | Green (AAM) | en_US |
Appears in Collections: | Journal/Magazine Article |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
---|---|---|---|---|
B2-0514.pdf | Pre-Published version | 1.5 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
Page views
119
Last Week
1
1
Last month
Citations as of Oct 13, 2024
Downloads
37
Citations as of Oct 13, 2024
SCOPUSTM
Citations
23
Last Week
0
0
Last month
Citations as of Oct 17, 2024
WEB OF SCIENCETM
Citations
20
Last Week
0
0
Last month
Citations as of Oct 17, 2024
Google ScholarTM
Check
Altmetric
Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.