计及风险的电力市场双边合同多阶段谈判模型

Abstract

双边合同是市场参与者规避现货市场电价风险的有效手段。现有的关于双边合同的研究大多集中于对其在规避风险和抑制市场势力的作用方面,而对双边合同的价格形成机制则关注甚少。在此背景下,提出了计及风险的电力市场双边合同多阶段谈判模型,其中采用了系列动态讨价还价来描述谈判过程。以期望效用理论描述由于电价波动给市场参与者带来的风险,采用让步因子描述参与者的谈判策略,并为市场参与者设置了期望效用和期望利润的下限限制。最后,用算例说明了所发展模型的基本特征。 Bilateral contracting represents an efficient approach for hedging the price risks in electricity spot markets. The existing research work on bilateral contracts has been concentrated on the effects of bilateral contracts on mitigating the electricity price risks and market power abuse, and less attention has been given to the forming mechanism of bilateral contracts. Given this background, a systematic multi-round bilateral negotiation framework, through which a generation company and a distribution one can reach a mutually beneficial and risk tolerable forward bilateral contract is developed. Under the framework, the generation and distribution companies respond rationally to a stream of bilateral offers counter-offers considering their respective benefits while accounting for the risks incurred by the price uncertainty in the spot electricity market. Each negotiation party can choose its own definition of the benefit and risk, and the expected utility is employed to describe the risk in this work. The concession factor is utilized to illustrate the negotiation strategy of the participants. The reservation expected utility and reservation expected profit are included in this framework so as to model the tolerable limits of the risk and the benefit. Finally, a numerical example is served for demonstrating the essential feature of the developed multi-round bilateral negotiating framework. This work is jointly supported by the Doctoral Fund of Ministry Education of China (No. 200805610020) and National Key Technology R&D Program (No. 2008BA A 13B10).