Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/1771
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dc.contributorSchool of Hotel and Tourism Management-
dc.creatorSong, H-
dc.creatorLi, G-
dc.creatorWitt, SF-
dc.creatorFei, B-
dc.date.accessioned2014-12-11T08:25:04Z-
dc.date.available2014-12-11T08:25:04Z-
dc.identifier.issn1354-8166-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10397/1771-
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherIP Publishing Ltden_US
dc.rightsCopyright © 2010 IP Publishing Ltd. Reproduced by permission. The journal web site is located at www.ippublishing.com.en_US
dc.subjectTourist arrivalsen_US
dc.subjectTourist expenditureen_US
dc.subjectForecasting accuracyen_US
dc.subjectHong Kongen_US
dc.titleTourism demand modelling and forecasting : how should demand be measured?en_US
dc.typeJournal/Magazine Articleen_US
dc.identifier.spage63-
dc.identifier.epage81-
dc.identifier.volume16-
dc.identifier.issue1-
dcterms.abstractTourist arrivals and tourist expenditure, in both aggregate and per capita forms, are commonly used measures of tourism demand in empirical research. This study compares these two measures in the context of econometric modelling and the forecasting of tourism demand. The empirical study focuses on demand for Hong Kong tourism by residents of Australia, the UK and the USA. Using the general-to-specific modelling approach, key determinants of tourism demand are identified based on different demand measures. In addition, the forecasting accuracy of these demand measures is examined. It is found that tourist arrivals in Hong Kong are influenced mainly by tourists' income and 'word-of-mouth'/habit persistence effects, while the tourism price in Hong Kong relative to that of the tourist origin country is the most important determinant of tourist expenditure in Hong Kong. Moreover, the aggregate tourism demand models outperform the per capita models, with aggregate expenditure models being the most accurate. The implications of these findings for tourism decision making are that the choice of demand measure for forecasting models should depend on whether the objective of the decision maker is to maximize tourist arrivals or expenditure (receipts), and also that the models should be specified in aggregate form.-
dcterms.accessRightsopen accessen_US
dcterms.bibliographicCitationTourism economics, March 2010, v. 16, no. 1, p. 63-81-
dcterms.isPartOfTourism economics-
dcterms.issued2010-03-
dc.identifier.isiWOS:000275608400005-
dc.identifier.eissn2044-0375-
dc.identifier.rosgroupidr47260-
dc.description.ros2009-2010 > Academic research: refereed > Publication in refereed journal-
dc.description.oaVersion of Recorden_US
dc.identifier.FolderNumberOA_IR/PIRAen_US
dc.description.pubStatusPublisheden_US
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