Prediction on energy yields of PV systems

Abstract

The China Central Government is determined to promote the use of solar PV in providing electricity to rural areas as well as supplementing power in cities; the installed PV capacity is predicted to be over 4.2GW by year 2015. To attend such a target, the annual expansion rate of PV installations in China and nearby regions has to be over 40%. At the same time, in May 2005, the Hong Kong local government also established its target in alternative energy, which is 1 to 2% by 2012. With such a rapidly expanding market, the capability in accurately predicting the real performance of a PV system to be installed; together with the proper monitoring and evaluation of its performance are thus of crucial importance to designing of these systems. The HKU & HK PolyU PV research teams are collocating together to introduce a methodology in prediction of PV system performance by considering intelligently the local environmental data into an efficiency model of the PV systems for accurate prediction of power output. Other parameters including orientation, tilt angle, shading factor, panel temperature, wiring configuration, and inverter efficiency are also fed into the prediction algorithm for a year-round energy yield.