Tourism demand forecasting : a time varying parameter error correction model

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/1322

Title:	Tourism demand forecasting : a time varying parameter error correction model
Authors:	Li, G Wong, KKF Song, H Witt, SF
Issue Date:	1-Nov-2006
Source:	Journal of travel research, 1 Nov. 2006, v. 45, no. 2, p. 175-185
Abstract:	The advantages of error correction models (ECMs) and time varying parameter (TVP) models have been discussed in the tourism forecasting literature. These models are now combined to give a new single-equation model, the time varying parameter error correction model (TVP-ECM), which is applied for the first time in the context of tourism demand forecasting. The empirical study focuses on tourism demand, measured by tourism spending per capita, by U.K. residents for five key Western European destinations. The empirical results show that the TVP-ECM can be expected to outperform a number of alternative econometric and time-series models in forecasting the demand for tourism, especially in forecasting the growth rate of tourism demand. A practical implication of this result is that the TVP-ECM approach should be used when forecasting tourism growth is concerned.
Keywords:	Time-varying parameter Error correction model Tourism demand Ex post forecasting Kalman filter
Publisher:	SAGE Publications
Journal:	Journal of travel research
ISSN:	0047-2875
EISSN:	1552-6763
DOI:	10.1177/0047287506291596
Rights:	© 2006 Sage Publications
Appears in Collections:	Journal/Magazine Article

File	Description	Size	Format
05-TVP-ECM LI et al SSOL version.pdf	Pre-published version	261.65 kB	Adobe PDF	View/Open

Status	open access
File Version	Final Accepted Manuscript

View full-text via PolyU eLinks

108

Last Week
1

Last month

Citations as of Jun 4, 2023

334

Citations as of Jun 4, 2023

126

Last Week
0

Last month
0

Citations as of Jun 2, 2023

Check