Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/10397/1322
Title: | Tourism demand forecasting : a time varying parameter error correction model | Authors: | Li, G Wong, KKF Song, H Witt, SF |
Issue Date: | 1-Nov-2006 | Source: | Journal of travel research, 1 Nov. 2006, v. 45, no. 2, p. 175-185 | Abstract: | The advantages of error correction models (ECMs) and time varying parameter (TVP) models have been discussed in the tourism forecasting literature. These models are now combined to give a new single-equation model, the time varying parameter error correction model (TVP-ECM), which is applied for the first time in the context of tourism demand forecasting. The empirical study focuses on tourism demand, measured by tourism spending per capita, by U.K. residents for five key Western European destinations. The empirical results show that the TVP-ECM can be expected to outperform a number of alternative econometric and time-series models in forecasting the demand for tourism, especially in forecasting the growth rate of tourism demand. A practical implication of this result is that the TVP-ECM approach should be used when forecasting tourism growth is concerned. | Keywords: | Time-varying parameter Error correction model Tourism demand Ex post forecasting Kalman filter |
Publisher: | SAGE Publications | Journal: | Journal of travel research | ISSN: | 0047-2875 | EISSN: | 1552-6763 | DOI: | 10.1177/0047287506291596 | Rights: | © 2006 Sage Publications |
Appears in Collections: | Journal/Magazine Article |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
---|---|---|---|---|
05-TVP-ECM LI et al SSOL version.pdf | Pre-published version | 261.65 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
Page views
108
Last Week
1
1
Last month
Citations as of Jun 4, 2023
Downloads
334
Citations as of Jun 4, 2023
SCOPUSTM
Citations
126
Last Week
0
0
Last month
0
0
Citations as of Jun 2, 2023

Google ScholarTM
Check
Altmetric
Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.