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Title: Tourism demand forecasting : a time varying parameter error correction model
Authors: Li, G
Wong, KKF
Song, H 
Witt, SF
Issue Date: 1-Nov-2006
Source: Journal of travel research, 1 Nov. 2006, v. 45, no. 2, p. 175-185
Abstract: The advantages of error correction models (ECMs) and time varying parameter (TVP) models have been discussed in the tourism forecasting literature. These models are now combined to give a new single-equation model, the time varying parameter error correction model (TVP-ECM), which is applied for the first time in the context of tourism demand forecasting. The empirical study focuses on tourism demand, measured by tourism spending per capita, by U.K. residents for five key Western European destinations. The empirical results show that the TVP-ECM can be expected to outperform a number of alternative econometric and time-series models in forecasting the demand for tourism, especially in forecasting the growth rate of tourism demand. A practical implication of this result is that the TVP-ECM approach should be used when forecasting tourism growth is concerned.
Keywords: Time-varying parameter
Error correction model
Tourism demand
Ex post forecasting
Kalman filter
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Journal: Journal of travel research 
ISSN: 0047-2875
EISSN: 1552-6763
DOI: 10.1177/0047287506291596
Rights: © 2006 Sage Publications
Appears in Collections:Journal/Magazine Article

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