Accuracy and bias of experts' adjusted forecasts

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/13096

Title:	Accuracy and bias of experts' adjusted forecasts
Authors:	Lin, VS Goodwin, P Song, H
Issue Date:	Sep-2014
Source:	Annals of tourism research, Sept. 2014, v. 48, p. 156-174
Abstract:	This study investigates whether experts' group-based judgmental adjustments to econometric forecasts of tourism demand improve the accuracy of the forecasts and whether the adjusted forecasts are unbiased. The Delphi method was used to aggregate experts' judgmental adjustments and a range of error measures and statistical tests were employed to evaluate forecast accuracy. Regression analysis was used to investigate whether the statistical and judgmentally-adjusted forecasts were unbiased. The hypothesis tests suggested that, on average, the adjustments of the Delphi panel improved forecast accuracy though the group-adjusted forecasts were found to be biased for some of the individual markets. In-depth interviews with the Delphi panellists provided further insights into the biases that were associated with the Delphi surveys.
Keywords:	Accuracy Bias Judgmental adjustment Tourism forecasts
Publisher:	Pergamon Press
Journal:	Annals of tourism research
ISSN:	0160-7383
EISSN:	1873-7722
DOI:	10.1016/j.annals.2014.06.005
Rights:	© 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. © 2014. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.
Appears in Collections:	Journal/Magazine Article

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