Stability assessment of reservoir bank anti-dip slopes using a modified Goodman-Bray method and Monte Carlo simulation

Abstract

Toppling failure is a fundamental mode of instability in rock slopes and occurs predominantly in reservoir bank anti-dip bedded rock masses. Reservoir impoundment changes seepage conditions and weakens slopes, whereas discontinuity non-persistence introduces uncertainty and complicates the identification of coupled toppling–sliding mechanisms. To address this, a probabilistic framework using the Goodman–Bray limit equilibrium method is developed. Equivalent strength parameters are introduced to unify the strength contrast between unsaturated and saturated segments along a common basal surface. Basal discontinuity connectivity is modeled as a random variable, and a Monte Carlo simulation is used to derive failure mode probabilities and a probability-weighted factor of safety. The framework is applied to the Huangcaoping anti-dip slope in the Dagangshan reservoir area at a normal water level of 1130 m. The most probable scenario has a probability of 0.116, involving sliding at 1120–1420 m and toppling at 1420–1550 m, with a probability-weighted mean factor of safety of 0.978. Predicted failure characteristics and deformation intervals are consistent with engineering observations, confirming the method’s effectiveness. This integration enables the simultaneous characterization of stability levels and the evolution mechanism. The approach provides mechanism-explicit mode likelihoods and a robust stability metric to support hazard assessment, monitoring placement, and reinforcement design.