The potential uptake and climate impacts of Hydrogen-Fuel-Cell vehicles in Beijing

Abstract

Hydrogen-fuel-cell vehicles (HFCVs) can deliver near-zero life-cycle emissions with green hydrogen, yet urban uptake remains negligible. Most diffusion studies treat cities as static backdrops. To overcome this, we build a dynamic, spatially explicit agent-based model (SelfSim-HFCV), calibrated to Beijing (2018–2023) and simulating to 2035, which co-evolves demographics, land-use change, and vehicle markets. Under the baseline, almost no HFCVs emerge. Redirecting growth to the Tongzhou Subcenter barely alters HFCV uptake but reallocates charging-station density southeast rather than increasing totals. Introducing demographic heterogeneity boosts HFCV adoption and reveals profiles: owners are typically older, wealthier, and concentrated in child-free, retiree, multi-license households. Only synchronized purchase subsidies with hydrogen-refueling-station (HRS) rollout shift applications to HFCVs and deliver sustained emission reductions, while HRS alone has limited effect due to scaling delays. These findings highlight the importance of coordinating infrastructure timing, urban form, and social composition, suggesting a transferable framework for urban hydrogen transition assessment.