A spatial and dynamic solution for allocation of COVID-19 vaccines when supply is limited

Abstract

Background: Since most of the global population needs to be vaccinated to reduce COVID-19 transmission and mortality, a shortage of COVID-19 vaccine supply is inevitable. We propose a spatial and dynamic vaccine allocation solution to assist in the allocation of limited vaccines to people who need them most. Methods: We developed a weighted kernel density estimation (WKDE) model to predict daily COVID-19 symptom onset risk in 291 Tertiary Planning Units in Hong Kong from 18 January 2020 to 22 December 2020. Data of 5,409 COVID-19 onset cases were used. We then obtained spatial distributions of accumulated onset risk under three epidemic scenarios, and computed the vaccine demands to form the vaccine allocation plan. We also compared the vaccine demand under different real-time effective reproductive number (Rₜ) levels. Results: The estimated vaccine usages in three epidemiologic scenarios are 30.86% - 45.78% of the Hong Kong population, which is within the total vaccine availability limit. In the sporadic cases or clusters of onset cases scenario, when 6.26% of the total population with travel history to high-risk areas can be vaccinated, the COVID-19 transmission between higher- and lower-risk areas can be reduced. Furthermore, if the current Rₜ is increased to double, the vaccine usages needed will be increased by more than 7%. Conclusions: The proposed solution can be used to dynamically allocate limited vaccines in different epidemic scenarios, thereby enabling more effective protection. The increased vaccine usages associated with increased Rₜ indicates the necessity to maintain appropriate control measures even with vaccines available.