Energy conservation and carbon emission reduction potentials of major household appliances in China leveraging the LEAP model

Abstract

Household appliances constitute the second largest source of residential energy consumption in China, accounting for over 20% of the total and exhibiting a steady growth trend. Despite their substantial impact on energy demand and carbon emissions, a comprehensive analysis of the current status and future trends of household appliances in China is still lacking. This study employs the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system to model energy consumption and carbon emissions for five major household appliances (air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines, TVs, and water heaters) from 2022 to 2052. Three scenarios were analyzed: a Reference (REF) scenario (current trends), an Existing Policy Option (EPO) scenario (current energy-saving measures), and a Further Strengthening (FUR) scenario (enhanced efficiency measures). Key results show that by 2052, the EPO scenario achieves cumulative savings of 1074.8 billion kWh and reduces emissions by 580.7 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent compared to REF. The FUR scenario yields substantially greater benefits, demonstrating the significant potential of strengthened policies. This analysis underscores the critical role of improving appliance energy efficiency and provides vital insights for policymakers and stakeholders aiming to reduce residential sector emissions.