Tracking and controlling the spatiotemporal spread of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in COVID-19 reopenings

Abstract

Understanding why or how the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants has occurred and how to control them is crucial as regards the potential of global reopening. To explore and further understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of the B.1.1.7 spread in the 368 districts of Taiwan, a district-level geographic prediction model of the risk of COVID-19 symptom onset has been proposed. It has been found that, (a) the human mobility, epidemic alert measures, and vaccination rates all played an important role in the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of B.1.1.7 transmission; (b) for regions with high human mobility and low vaccination rates, the partial relaxation of entry quarantine measures for specific imported groups would, in fact, lead to a wide spread of B.1.1.7 with a consequent doubling of high-onset-risk areas and together with the overall onset risk, a further increase of more than 20% would occur; (c) compared with the closing of business places and public venues in all districts, both lockdown in those areas of high-onset-risk and the gathered control effects regarding other districts, the control of B.1.1.7 spread would be better enabled by an onset risk reduction of up to 91.36%. Additionally, an increase in the vaccination rate in each district by up to 5–10 times would further reduce the onset risk by 6.07%–62.22%.