Compound dry and wet extremes lead to an increased risk of rice yield loss

Abstract

Extreme dry and wet events can result in significant crop yield losses. However, the impact of consecutive occurrence of dry and wet extremes on crop yield remains unclear. Here, we investigate the hotspots of compound dry and wet (CDW) extremes across global rice croplands and their impacts on rice yield. We identify a significant increasing trend in the frequency of CDW extremes during 1981–2016. The risk of yield loss caused by CDW extremes can be twice as high as the risk from individual wet and dry extremes. Furthermore, we find that global rice croplands face a 43% higher risk of rice yield loss due to dry-to-wet extremes compared to wet-to-dry extremes. Our findings provide new insights into the sustainability of global rice production and food security in the face of compound hydrological extremes.