Optimizing polar air traffic : strategies for mitigating the effects of space weather-induced communication failures poleward of 82°N

Abstract

Aviation communication is significant for the safe, efficient, and orderly operation of air traffic. The aviation industry relies on a sophisticated network to maintain air-ground communications. However, space weather events can disrupt the ionosphere conditions and damage satellites, leading to High-Frequency (HF) communication blackouts and satellite communication failures. These disruptions can jeopardize flight safety, especially for flights over polar regions. In response, strategies such as cancellations, rescheduling, or rerouting to lower latitudes may be necessary, despite the low flight efficiency and substantial financial losses. With the background of the anticipated solar maximum in 2025 and a growing number of polar flights, it is indispensable to have a comprehensive understanding of the space weather effects on aviation communication and develop constructive strategies from an Air Traffic Management (ATM) perspective. Hence, we simulate scenarios with different durations of communication failures and assess the corresponding economic losses. Based on the data derived from historical polar flights in 2019, there are daily 18 polar flights with trajectories crossing the north polar region higher than 82°N. Simulation results show that the economic losses associated with these polar flights can range from €0.03 million to €1.32 million, depending on both the duration of communication failures and the adopted air traffic management strategies. We believe that this study can shed light on the effects of space weather-induced communication failures on polar flight operations and provide guidance for mitigating these effects in the aviation industry.