The impacts of geopolitics on global liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipping network : evidence from two geopolitical events

Abstract

The global energy landscape is evolving rapidly, with Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) playing an increasingly important role due to its clean combustion characteristics and flexible transportation modes. However, the structural changes and vulnerabilities of LNG shipping network during major geopolitical events, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Red Sea crisis, remain understudied. This research constructs and analyses the evolution of the LNG shipping network using Automatic Identification System (AIS) data from January 2020 to June 2024, focusing on changes before and after these two geopolitical events. By tracking key network metrics, we find that the network steadily expanded during this period, with almost all metrics reaching their peak performance in the second half of 2022 following the Russia-Ukraine conflict outbreak. However, the Red Sea crisis, which erupted in late 2023, did not significantly impact network performance. Community detection using the Infomap algorithm reveals the emergence of a large port community after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which later fragmented into smaller communities during the Red Sea crisis. Adaptive intentional attack simulations indicate that the network vulnerability varied over time, and unexpectedly, the network became less vulnerable following the Red Sea crisis. Port criticality rankings differed across periods, reflecting shifts in global LNG trade dynamics. These findings provide valuable insights into the structural dynamics and the vulnerability of LNG shipping network in a changing global context, offering guidance for stakeholders in managing vulnerabilities and enhancing LNG supply chain reliability.