Discrepancies in precipitation changes over the Southwest River Basin of China based on ISIMIP3b

Abstract

Selecting appropriate global climate models (GCMs) is crucial for minimizing uncertainty in regional climate projections under future scenarios. Previous studies have predominantly assessed the modeling capability of GCMs for regional precipitation climatology and its long-term patterns based on annual and seasonal precipitation data. Building upon these, we primally evaluated the performance of five GCMs from phase 3b of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b) in simulating precipitation concentration and its variations in the Southwest River Basin (SWRB) of China using the precipitation concentration index (PCI). The results indicate that: (1) The 5 GCMs generally capture the spatial distribution of annual average precipitation in the SWRB but significantly overestimate its magnitude, with a maximum regional average deviation of 207.80 mm. Furthermore, all models tend to overestimate the overall drying trend in the SWRB and show limited capability in simulating interdecadal variations of annual precipitation. (2) While the 5 GCMs reasonably simulate the spatial distribution of annual average PCI in the SWRB, they tend to overestimate its values, with a maximum regional average deviation of 1.54. Additionally, their simulation performance in capturing PCI trends and interdecadal variations is also limited. (3) The 5 GCMs tend to overestimate seasonal precipitation in the SWRB, with the best simulation performance for the distribution of autumn precipitation, followed by spring and summer, and the poorest for winter. Significant differences exist in the simulation performance of the models for seasonal precipitation proportions, which result in discrepancies in the models’ representation of PCI. Moreover, the models’ poor simulation performance of PCI trends is partly due to their inadequate modeling of trends in seasonal precipitation proportions. The findings will contribute to laying the foundation for meteorological hydrological research and water resource management in the SWRB.