Exploring the seasonality and optimal control strategy of HIV/AIDS epidemic in China : the impact of seasonal testing

Abstract

In this work, we investigate how the seasonal variation in the number of individuals who are tested for an HIV antibody in outpatient clinics affects the HIV transmission patterns in China, which has not been well studied. Based on the characteristics of outpatient testing data and reported cases, we establish a periodic infectious disease model to study the impact of seasonal testing on HIV transmission. The results indicate that the seasonal testing is a driving factor for the seasonality of new cases. We demonstrate the feasibility of ending the HIV/AIDS epidemic. We find that the diagnostic rates related to testing play a crucial role in controlling the size of the epidemic. Specifically, when considering minimizing both infected individuals and diagnostic rates, the level of attention paid to undiagnosed infected individuals is always positively correlated with the optimal diagnostic rates, while the optimal diagnostic rates are negatively correlated with the size of the epidemic at the terminal time.