Asian heat stress variations in a changing climate : implications for disproportionate urban and rural population exposure

Abstract

The changing climate has intensified the occurrence of extreme heat events, posing a huge challenge for sustainable development and necessitating the implementation of suitable measures to address these issues. Large scale disparities in heat stress over the selected geographic and climatic regions of Asia and the different urban-rural population exposure to heat stress under different climate change scenarios is not well understood. Here, using long-term modelled data in both historical (1990–2014) and four future (2026–2100) SSP (shared socioeconomic pathway) scenarios, we evaluated the heat stress variability across time and space in different geographic stetting of Asia and mapped the heat stress population exposure for urban and rural region separately. We found a pervasive disparity in heat stress magnitude and trend over different regions of Asia and a noteworthy escalation of heat stress in future SSPs scenarios, with a more profound effect under the SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0. Moreover, a substantial increase in population exposure to heat stress is evident in both urban and rural contexts, with large inequalities in urban and rural population exposure in Eastern China. Our results provide a quantitative estimate of the heat stress and its urban-rural population exposure, which will provide valuable insights for authorities and policymakers, highlighting the importance of the need for sustained emergency investment on a priority basis for most vulnerable populations in future heat wave occurrence.