Assessing the belt and road initiative’s impact : a multi-regression model based on economic interaction

Abstract

This study examines the impact of joining the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on the economies of ASEAN countries, focusing on the shipping industry’s performance. Ten economic interaction indicators were analyzed using data from 2015–2022 and predicting future data for 2015–2030 through GM(1,1) and FOA-SVR models. The principal component regression (PCR) model, combined with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), assessed the correlation of these indicators with GDP and port container throughput (PCT). The findings reveal a strong correlation between economic interaction scores with China and economic and shipping performance, highlighting Chinese investment’s significant impact on GDP and shipping connectivity’s substantial influence on container throughput. This study provides a framework for quantifying organizational engagement levels and policy effectiveness