Unequal impacts of urban industrial land expansion on economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions

Abstract

Industrial land drives economic growth but also contributes to global warming through carbon dioxide emissions. Still, the variance in its impact on economies and emissions across countries at different development stages is understudied. Here, we used satellite data and machine learning to map industrial land at 30 m resolution in ten countries with substantial industrial value-added, and analyzed the impact of industrial land expansion on economic growth and emissions in 216 subnational regions from 2000 to 2019. We found that industrial land expansion was the leading factor for economic growth and emissions in developing regions, contributing 31% and 55%, respectively. Conversely, developed regions showed a diminished impact (8% and 3%, respectively), with a shift towards other economic growth drivers like education. Our findings encourage developing regions to consider the adverse effects of climate change during industrial land expansion and that developed regions prioritize human capital investment over further land expansion.