The impact of urban scaling structure on the local-scale transmission of COVID-19 : a case study of the Omicron wave in Hong Kong using agent-based modeling

Abstract

Superspreading events underscore the uneven distribution of COVID-19 transmission among individuals and locations. These heterogenous transmission patterns could stem from human mobility, yet the underlying mechanisms are still not fully understood. Here, we employ an agent-based model incorporating urban scaling structure to simulate fine-grained mobility and the human-to-human transmission process. Our results reveal that not only the quantity but also the scaling structure of mobility profoundly influences local transmission risk. Urban scaling structure is characterized by a widely found power-law scaling distribution of mobility volumes across different locations. By integrating this structure, our model fits reasonably well with empirical Omicron data at various spatial scales in Hong Kong. Further analyses show a positive association between the scaling index, representing the location’s importance within the structure, and local transmission risks among urban areas as well as the likelihood of becoming superspreaders among local visitors. This implies that urban scaling structure could offer the first-mover advantage to a minority of places and individuals to infect earlier and thus infect more. This study brings important insights for the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and similar diseases, highlighting the role of urban scaling structure in influencing local transmission risks and superspreading events.