Investigating the impact of the spatiotemporal bias correction of precipitation in CMIP6 climate models on drought assessments

Abstract

Precipitation of future climate models is critical for the assessments of future drought but contains large systematic biases over the Tibetan Plateau. Although the common precipitation bias correction method, quantile mapping has achieved remarkable results in terms of temporal bias correction, it does not consider the spatial distribution of bias. Furthermore, the extent to which precipitation bias affects drought estimation remains unclear. In our study, we take the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QHTP) as the case study and quantify the impact of corrected precipitation bias for seven Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models on drought assessment in historical and future scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). To improve the accuracy of drought prediction, potential evapotranspiration (PET) was also corrected. Firstly, the histogram matching-quantile mapping (HQ) algorithm considering spatial correction is established to correct precipitation and PET. Then, we quantified the effects of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration correction on the change of drought intensity, and finally analyzed the spatiotemporal trends of precipitation, PET, and SPEI over the QHTP in the future. The results show that the HQ method can effectively improve the simulation ability of the model, especially the simulation accuracy of the ensemble model. After correction, the average annual total precipitation (TP) declined by 64.262% in 99.952% of QHTP, the average PET increased in 11.902% of the area and decreased in 88.098% of the area, while the intensity of the drought in 81.331% of the area increased by 2.875% and the 18.669% area decreased by 1.139%. Therefore, the uncorrected simulation data overestimated the future increase trend in precipitation and underestimated the future decrease trend in SPEI. The trend of HQ-corrected TP increased by 3.730 mm/10a, 7.190 mm/10a, and 12.790 mm/10a, and the trend of SPEI (TP and PET corrected) decreased by 0.143/100a, 0.397/100a, and 0.675/100a, respectively. Therefore, quantifying the changing relationship between precipitation bias correction and drought assessments is useful for understanding regional climate change.