Predicting Standardized Streamflow index for hydrological drought using machine learning models

Abstract

Hydrological droughts are characterized based on their duration, severity, and magnitude. Among the most critical factors, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff are essential in modeling the droughts. In this study, three indices of drought, i.e., Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI), and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), are modeled using Support Vector Regression (SVR), Gene Expression Programming (GEP), and M5 model trees (MT). The results indicate that SPI delivered higher accuracy. Moreover, MT model performed better in predicting SSI by a CC of 0.8195 and a RMSE of 0.8186.