Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/74149
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Title: Modelling the interdependence of tourism demand : the global vector autoregressive approach
Authors: Cao, Z
Li, G
Song, H 
Issue Date: Nov-2017
Source: Annals of tourism research, Nov. 2017, v. 67, p. 1-13
Abstract: This study develops a global vector autoregressive (global VAR or GVAR) model to quantify the cross-country co-movements of tourism demand and simulate the impulse responses of shocks to the Chinese economy. The GVAR model overcomes the endogeneity and over-parameterisation issues found in many tourism demand models. The results show the size of co-movements in tourism demand across 24 major countries in different regions. In the event of negative shocks to China's real income and China's tourism price variable, almost all of these countries would face fluctuations in their international tourism demand and in their tourism prices in the short run. In the long run, developing countries and China's neighbouring countries would tend to be more negatively affected than developed countries.
Keywords: Co-movement
Economic interdependence
Global VAR
Impulse response
Tourism demand
Publisher: Pergamon Press
Journal: Annals of tourism research 
ISSN: 0160-7383
EISSN: 1873-7722
DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2017.07.019
Rights: © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
© 2017. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.
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