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Title: Measuring the degree of speculation in the residential housing market : a spatial econometric model and its application in China
Authors: Yang, XD
Wu, YX
Shen, QP 
Dang, H
Issue Date: Sep-2017
Source: Habitat international, Sept. 2017, v. 67, p. 96-104
Abstract: Since the housing marketization reform, China's real estate industry has rapidly developed and commercial housing prices have risen sharply. The main reason for this is the speculative demand for housing, which breaks the equilibrium of supply and demand, leading to housing prices deviating from their basic value. The housing market in China is not isolated by province, since speculative behavior in one part of the country can affect other regions. This paper analyzes the spatial relevance in housing prices among different provinces in China by calculating Moran's I index and by measuring the speculation degree through spatial autoregressive model (SAR), a spatial economic model combined with a spatial weight matrix. For commercial housing speculation degree measurement and comparison, 31 provinces in China were chosen along with the following variables: housing prices, personal disposable income, one-year personal housing mortgage rates, housing prices growing rates, the rent, amount of residential investment, and the construction areas of houses. The results show that China's housing prices have a clear interaction among the selected cities, and that housing speculation behavior also influences each other in space. Although there are speculation activities in China, from a global perspective the degree of speculation, which varies from region to region, is still just within internationally acceptable limits. Although there are some regions with high degrees of housing speculation, the speculation is not yet China-wide.
Keywords: Commercial residential housing market
Housing prices
Speculation degree
Moran's I index
Spatial econometrics
SAR model
Publisher: Pergamon Press
Journal: Habitat international 
ISSN: 0197-3975
EISSN: 1873-5428
DOI: 10.1016/j.habitatint.2017.06.005
Rights: © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
© 2017 This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in International Journal of Project Management. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. The definitive version Yang, X., Wu, Y., Shen, Q., & Dang, H. (2017). Measuring the degree of speculation in the residential housing market: A spatial econometric model and its application in China. Habitat International, 67, 96-104 is available at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2017.04.004
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